When Opportunity Knocks

By Jimmy Soni

Last week’s uncovering of a plot to down British airliners thrust terrorism and security issues back into the forefront of the American consciousness. To be sure, terrorism hadn’t strayed far, but its place at the top of the order was stealthily wedged out by a summer of high gas prices, intense heat, and Al Gore’s cinematic flair. Now, on the eve of the fifth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks, security concerns are sure to play a much more central role in the midterm elections, challenging both parties to critically examine where they are and where they are going in keeping America safe.

After a series of setbacks, the President is on the defensive. Despite an uptick in the polls for Republicans after the British arrests, the President’s job approval has not gained similar ground. Earlier this week, he lost a crucial fight when a federal judge ruled unconstitutional the National Security Administration’s selective wiretapping of international communications of Americans. Republican Representative Jo Ann Davis of Virginia unexpectedly broke ranks and called for the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld, a reflection, perhaps, of waning White House control over the party’s rank-and-file. The Republicans—traditionally disciplined, in sync, on message—cannot afford these kinds of outbursts with the election less than two months away.

Perhaps the most disturbing news for the majority party came from a recent Pew poll surveying “security moms”—married women with children—in Ohio. The Democrats appear to have dislodged this group of swing voters from their Republican loyalties, a coup considering that this cohort supported Republicans 53-36 in 2002 and the President with 56% in 2004. In a crucial swing state, and one where Democrats have gone almost a decade without winning a statewide office, the Democratic candidate for governor leads by 20 points. Not only does this sea change leave vulnerable Republican Senator Mike DeWine reeling, but it suggests that the Republican strategy of rolling out summer votes on divisive cultural issues might have been blunted by security concerns.

The link between these unhappy mothers and uneasy Congressional representatives is Iraq. The decision by the President to marry the war in Iraq with the broader security of the United States appears now to have been a Faustian bargain, with Republicans facing criticism in an area that usually serves as their electoral anchor. With no end in sight and violence aplenty, the war will continue to be dead weight and will only cause more dissension. Mavericks will be forced to separate the war from security--an impossible trick if you ask any Democrat.

The Republicans unsure footing offers Democrats a rare opportunity to take charge. One emerging problem is how to turn these recent Republican setbacks into Democratic gains for the midterm elections, without sacrificing coherence and vision for the all-important 2008 Presidential campaign. Democrats remember all too vividly the sting of ‘voting for it, before voting against it,’ and the party ought to be careful not to make the same lethal mistake. One strategy might be to avoid tearing the party threadbare over Iraq and focusing on a platform that tackles forgotten security issues.

We have some inkling of such a strategy in Illinois Representative Rahm Emanuel’s recently released “The Plan: Big Ideas for America.” Ignoring for a moment that the title lacks the brevity and clarity of Newt Gingrich’s 1994 “Contract with America,” Emanuel’s “Plan” does challenge the United States to substantially increase the size of its armed forces and reexamine the labyrinthine Department of Homeland Security. But here’s the rub: Emanuel also proposes three months of compulsory disaster training for all 18-to-25-year-olds. It’s a fool’s errand, and comes at a time when Americans aren’t too keen on government projects laden with inefficiency (airport security), incompetence (Iraq), and inadequacy (energy policy).

In a matter of weeks, the country will pause to reflect on the five-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. If we are to expect our elected officials to find real solutions to very real problems—port security, outdated intelligence systems, or loose nuclear weapons, for example—then we must demand it of them at the ballot box. The foiled British plot is a stark reminder that the threat of terrorism is ever-present, and solutions will require more than disaster training or disastrous conflicts.